Adventures of a Gringa

Dilma's DC Visit

Leading up to President Dilma Rousseff's Washington visit, there was an odd mixture of hype and a collective shrugging of shoulders. On the one hand, there was much ado about how it wouldn't be an official state visit with the honors and symbolism it entails. Reuters explained how the snub in protocol would have reverberations. "There's a feeling that most people in Washington don't appreciate what's happening in Brazil...Obama could have taken her to dinner, or to the Kennedy Center," an anonymous Brazilian source said.

Some observers anticipated there wouldn't be many concrete results to come out of the trip, and that long-term changes in foreign policy would be key. Others pointed out to ongoing foreign policy problems in not seeing eye to eye. A Financial Times article cited a U.S. government official who called Brazil "the France of Latin America," saying that the country's “obstructionism in global talks is often driven by their need to assert their newfound power...undermining our initiatives in Iran or over trade talks, for example, is their way of forcing us to pay attention to them.”

On the other hand, there was lots of noise from analysts who said there was even more opportunity for Brazil and the United States to forge a closer relationship, and that given Brazil's global rise, there was even more incentive and need to for the U.S. to adapt its stance on Brazil. "Brazil has probably never mattered more to America than it does now. America has probably never mattered less to Brazil," The Economist declared. Several op-eds recommended that both countries work on a free trade deal (though this still seems highly unlikely on either side.) One analyst said there was room to bring the two governments closer, since they maintain a cordial relationship but a safe distance from one another. A Politico op-ed vaguely called for a "bolder partnership."

So what actually happened? Not a lot, really. But the saddest thing was how little interest the whole trip generated.

In the English language press, there was some coverage, but some of the biggest publications--including The Washington Post and The New York Times--initially ignored the visit. (As I was writing this, the New York Times published a very good analysis of the visit which was more helpful post-visit than pre-visit.) Obama and Rousseff gave a very brief press conference after their meeting, which was broadcast live on a Brazilian government website and publicized by Itamaraty, but was not broadcast on the White House website and was nowhere to be found on there later. The White House livestreams today were dedicated to a daily press briefing--which did not include remarks on Dilma's visit--and an Easter concert. In comparison to the North American leaders visit last week, which had a full, livestreamed press conference with Obama and his Canadian and Mexican counterparts, it seemed the administration really didn't give Rousseff's visit much importance at all. On the Brazilian side, there was plenty of press coverage, but as journalist Gabriel Elizondo pointed out, news of Facebook's takeover of Instagram dominated the afternoon news, rather than the visit.

Both leaders released a joint statement, which was full of pretty words like "cooperation" and "partnership" and "welcomed" and "praised" but was pretty low on substance. (Notably, Obama failed to endorse Brazil's bid for a seat on the UN Security Council--again.) Dilma said she hoped to build a relationship "among equals" while Obama said he was "lucky" to have a "partner" like Dilma. Despite the attempts to be cordial, there wasn't much love--it was all very friendly, but it was definitely a cool exchange.

Meanwhile, there was an all-day event surrounding the visit at the Chamber of Commerce, where gung-ho Brazil advocates spoke of "crucial strategic issues" and said promoting Brazil policy was not an option for the U.S. One speaker joked that Brazil had made a terrible mistake for not having Pakistan or Syria on its borders, therefore making the country more relevant to U.S. foreign policy. President Rousseff later spoke at the event, where she talked at length about economic policies and the real focus was discussing monetary policy in developed countries. The night before, she met with representatives from the private sector, half-joking that she had to leave Brazil to meet with Brazilian businessmen.

Still, there were a few small concrete morsels. The biggest thing was that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the United States would open two new consulates in Brazil in order to allow for more access to visas. One will be in Belo Horizonte, in Minas Gerais, and the other in Porto Alegre, in Rio Grande do Sul. It's a necessary step, considering Brazil is the size of the continental U.S. and only has four consulates. It's also quite symbolic that a consulate will open in Minas, the state with one of the largest numbers of migrants to the United States during the 1980s and 90s. Now, the U.S. is courting its rabid consumers--talk about coming full circle. Still, it means that most of the country's consulates are in the south and southeast; the only consulate in the Northeast is in Recife, and the country's third-largest city, Salvador, does not have a consulate. Also, according to one report, the new consulates won't open until 2014. [UPDATE: a 4/10 Globo article interviews a U.S. diplomat who says she doesn't expect Brazil to meet the visa exemption requirements in the short or medium term. It's more than percent of approved visas; the country needs 100% digital passports and government information sharing.]

On the visa front, the leaders discussed the Global Entry program, which the United States recently announced would be open to be Brazilians, allowing screened "safe" travelers to enter 20 U.S. airports without waiting in line at immigration. The Brazilian government needs to approve the program in order for it to go into effect, and the U.S. hopes Brazil will reciprocate by creating a similar program. It would be one of the easier first steps in terms of visas, since the U.S. has already taken the first step. Still, it's not clear when and if the Brazilian government will approve the program.

In the Brazilian press, there was much ado about this line from the joint statement from the two leaders: "They committed to work closely together to satisfy the requirements of the of the US Visa Waiver Program and Brazil’s applicable legislation to enable US and Brazilian citizens visa free travel." As far as I'm concerned, that means the U.S. is still just talking about considering allowing Brazil into the visa waiver program, which is different from saying it is close to eligible or realistically has a chance of this happening by the end of Dilma's administration. Still a lot of talk and very little action. The fact that the big news was more consulates is great, but it also means that there's an expectation for more visa processing, not less.

Finally, both countries agreed to new terms on alcohol imports. The U.S. will officially treat cachaça as separate from Latin American rums and as "exclusively and distinctly Brazilian," while Brazil will label bourbon and Tennessee whiskey as "officially American," in a bid to increase trade of both types of liquor. The agreement should theoretically lower import taxes on cachaça in the U.S. Still...one of the only concrete trade deals was getting both sides to acknowledge semantics? And on liquor, at that? Also, as a gift of goodwill and to celebrate the alcohol deal, Dilma will allegedly give Obama a diamond-encrusted, $116,500 bottle of cachaça. No word on if or what gift Obama will give Dilma. Touché.

All in all, it was a pretty disappointing affair. There's hope yet, though--Rousseff's visit to Boston to promote Science without Borders has the potential to be more promising than her trip to DC.

This Week's Reads

There are a bunch of interesting Brazil stories and interviews from the past few days that are worth reading. Have a read:

• The blonde gang: a gang of young, middle-class, educated blonde women are being hunted by police after a series of express kidnappings to make luxury purchases at malls in São Paulo. English version, from the BBC, and Portuguese, from Último Segundo.

• Gun sales on the rise: Around 4.3 million Brazilian-produced weapons were sold in Brazil in the last five years, says a recent investigation. A Pública has a lengthy report on arms production and sales in Brazil. It's part of a series on weapons in Brazil, which also shows that Brazil exported 4.48 million light weapons from 2005 to 2010.

• President Dilma talks to VEJA: Since taking office, the president has given few lengthy exclusive interviews to the press, so it was especially interesting to see her give a ten-page interview to the popular right-leaning publication that is notoriously critical of the Worker's Party, as well as Lula and Dilma. In the highlights published so far, it seems it's a lot of reassurance about how things are going, defending her economic policies, and denying problems with her congressional coalition. She also said she agreed with business leaders that the country needs to lower taxes in order to help businesses grow. To read highlights, see VEJA and EXAME. The full interview should go up online soon.

• Romário talks to Valor: Former soccer star "bad boy" and Rio federal congressman Romário gave a very interesting interview to Valor, where he talks about his dedication to his new job. He discusses how "around 80 percent" of his fellow deputies don't bother to show up, about his dedication to promoting rights for the disabled, his role as a critic of Brazil's World Cup preparations and its relationship to FIFA (with some interesting observations on overspending on World Cup projects), and his upbringing in favelas in Rio's Zona Norte. He also mentioned a disturbing anecdote about the state of public health in Rio, since his brother had recently discovered his uncle at a public hospital, where he had been lying dead in a hallway for three days. Read the full interview on Romário's website.

• Brazil's pension system: The Economist explains in precise detail about how Brazil's pension system works and why it could be a major budget problem for the country. I also think it's interesting from a productivity perspective, but in general it's the best overview on the topic I've seen recently.

A Stately Visit

Brazil's president will visit the United States in a few weeks, and the Brazil mediasphere is all abuzz with news that the U.S. government will not receive her as a "state visit," meaning the highest honors given to a visiting head of state. Does it really matter if Dilma gets a black tie dinner, a week of cultural events, and a chance to address Congress? In theory, no, not really. But the symbolism behind denying her an official state visit does matter--not just for Brazil, but for Latin America, too.

The problem was that the U.S. told Brazil that it would not be a state visit because it wasn't allowed during an election year. The big mistake there was that it was obviously untrue: just last week, UK Prime Minister David Cameron visited Washington on an official state visit. To add insult to injury, three other major developing country leaders had state visits during Obama's administration so far: China's President Hu Jintao in 2011, Mexico's President Felipe Calderón in 2010, and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2009. Meanwhile, Itamaraty wants the visit to be "reciprocal" and to be a "mirrored" agenda from Obama's visit to Brazil. While Brazil rolled out the red carpet for Obama in a visit fit for a king, it doesn't seem that will quite be the case for Dilma in Washington.

Truthiness does not bode well to try to fortify what is arguably the United States' most important relationship in Latin America, nor does it promise to get the visit off on the right foot. Brazil is already on the defense after the U.S. suspended a big fighter jet purchase from Embraer (though there's a possibility it could still happen), throwing the Brazilians off guard. On Cartas de Washington, Denise Chrispim explains that with few "impactful" topics to discuss, Dilma will likely push her Science without Borders program, working on establishing more ties with the U.S. to send Brazilian students to study here.

There's been some theorizing about why the U.S. decided not to give Dilma a state visit. In TIME, Tim Padgett hypothesized that the Obama administration was irritated with Brazil's foreign policy, a combination of Lula's Iran (mis)adventures, Dilma's failure to criticize human rights in Cuba (she instead discussed Guantanamo), and abstentions at the UN on Syria and human rights issues.

There's also been some discussion about whether the semantics of a state or official visit really matter. Boz of Bloggings by Boz wrote in a blog post that he doesn't think it matters, and that practical, concrete results matter more:

I'd rather know the details to the next space and technology cooperation agreement than what was served with each dinner course. I'd rather know how Brazil and the US are going to cooperate on anti-hunger programs in Haiti and Africa than which chefs made the amuse-bouche and caipirinhas. I'd rather know how we're going to resolve our differences over military procurement and Iranian sanctions than argue over which dresses looked best and worst.

While symbolism matters, he argued, the U.S. should save symbolic events for China, which really appreciates them.

But Brazil really does appreciate symbolism, and takes diplomatic cues very seriously, not to mention its incredible sensitivity to how the country is perceived abroad. By not telling the truth about why it wouldn't be a state visit, the U.S. gave Brazil even less reason to create a basis of trust between its leaders, and established that the playing field between the two countries is in fact uneven.

This is another issue that Brazilians are sensitive to, even at the diplomatic level: as the country's power has grown and its international role has expanded, Brazil sees itself not only as a regional power, but now, as a world power too. It expects to command more respect and desperately craves to be viewed as an equal partner, rather than the stigma of a "poor" developing country on a lower tier. With the news that the UK, but not Brazil would get a state visit, the U.S. sent a clear message: Brazil is simply not as important a partner.

Sadly, that seems to be the reality of it from the administration's perspective. While Brazil is a critical regional partner for the United States, it's not a global strategic priority. In an op-ed for the Miami Herald, Andres Oppenheimer outlines some of the reasons why this is, and why the U.S. considers China and India as more strategic partners (he argues that Brazil should be treated more like India). Maybe this will change, particularly as Brazil becomes an even bigger oil power, but not yet.

In the end, the diplomatic saia justa sends a message not only to Brazil, but to the region, too: if Brazil isn't considered important enough for a state visit and the level of dialogue and respect it affords, what can other Latin American countries expect? On the eve of the Summit of the Americas, it's especially telling about U.S.-Latin American ties.

In the end, Dilma is the ultimate pragmatist, and she'll do what she has to do to cover her agenda. It also seems likely she'll travel outside of Washington to work on Science without Borders, possibly going to Boston to visit Harvard and MIT. But there doesn't seem to be much to expect in terms of game-changing policy announcements or really new developments in the bilateral relationship. It will hopefully be a constructive visit, with more commitments to education exchange, which is always exciting. But Itamaraty won't forget about the diplomatic snub, and if other Latin American leaders are paying attention, they won't either.

Photo: Blog do Planalto

Brazil Envy in Latin America

It seems that in much of Latin America, there's a growing sense of Brazil envy.

Latin American media, like the international media, is increasingly covering Brazil, as people look to Brazil as an enviable success story. But the other interesting trend is an expanding group of Brazilian political consultants selling "the Brazil model" and the "Lula way" to Latin American political candidates. Brazilian political consultants helped on the campaigns of Peru's President Ollanta Humala, El Salvador's President Mauricio Funes, and President Fernando Lugo, as well as Lugo's rival candidate. Brazilians are now working on the campaign for Henrique Capriles, the opposition candidate in Venezuela, a self-professed admirer of Lula and Brazilian social programs. Brazilians are also reportedly working for President Hugo Chavez, too. They're even working in the Dominican Republic, on Danilo Medina's campaign.

It makes sense that other countries are hoping to replicate Brazil's successes, particularly its social programs, poverty reduction and middle class expansion, political stability, and economic growth. Selling a market-friendly approach with Brazilian-style social programs is a no-brainer. It's also a given that left-leaning leaders would try to model themselves on Lula, who proved it was not only possible to keep business leaders happy and tackle poverty with cash transfer programs, but also do both with tremendous results and increase GDP at the same time. But Brazilians also offer Brazilian-style political campaigns, which are "more pragmatic, steered directly at voters, and [have] a certain dose of happiness," said a recent report on Brazilian political consultants. Ultimately, other countries hunger for Brazil's power and ascendance on the world stage, craving the newfound respect and clout the country enjoys abroad. There seems to be the impression, "If Brazil can do it, why can't we?"

Perhaps part of Brazilians' success at marketing their political approach is their incredible public relations abilities. After all, it's only recently that more countries are interested in the Brazil model, but Brazilian consultants have been around for over a decade, when they worked local and national political campaigns in Argentina. Now more than ever, Brazilians in the public eye are excellent at marketing the country's success, able to dazzle both foreign investors and politicians alike. Lula himself, of course, was the master of PR, of branding and rebranding, of befriending everyone and appeasing opposition, of tailoring Brazil's image abroad. For consultants, the overwhelming sense of optimism in Brazil makes it easier to market the county, but nevertheless, it's tempting to gloss over Brazil's shortcomings with plenty of good things to talk about. Plus, Brazilians can make it possible to forget about the country's problems with their awe-inspiring tales of growth and promise.

But I think Al Jazeera journalist Gabriel Elizondo put it best when he said this:

Everyone running for president in Latin America wants to follow "the Lula model." Easier said than done. Lula's secret weapon was: Brazil.

— Gabriel Elizondo (@elizondogabriel) February 17, 2012

Consultants can offer a guide for campaigns and policy, but there is no magic formula, not to mention very different economic and political realities and limitations in other countries. Brazil's rise has been inspiring for both Brazilians and people from developing countries, but it was also about time. Brazil is the largest country in Latin America in terms of geographic size and population, with a huge wealth of natural resources as well as large service companies and manfacturers. It was a story of success foretold. The combination of finally coming into its own and achieving its potential--no longer the country of the future--is something other Latin American countries crave, too. It's not as if Latin America as a region hasn't seen positive changes, including lower poverty rates and growing middle classes; there are plenty of success stories throughout the region in terms of economic growth, like Chile and Peru, for example. But there's still the reality that Brazil has become the regional star, and other countries hope to shine, too. (Don't ask the Mexicans about that, though. They may not want to talk about it.) If anyone can convince other Latin Americans that it's possible to achieve Brazil-style success, regardless of whether it's possible or not, it will definitely be a Brazilian.

Photo: World Economic Forum

Visa Changes Afoot

Since I last wrote about visas in December, things are changing. On the U.S. side, the pro-tourism lobby had some success with pushing for changes to increase the number of Brazilian tourists. In Brazil, immigration changes are reportedly on the way, as the government seeks to increase professional immigrants, particularly from Europe, and cut down on the number of undocumented immigrants from Haiti and South Asia.

Last Thursday, President Obama announced a number of changes to U.S. tourist visa policy, specifically to benefit high-spending Brazilian and Chinese tourists. Here are the changes that pertain to Brazilians:

• Increase non-immigrant visas in Brazil by 40% this year. That includes the plan already in place to add 50 consular employees in Brazil in 2012, and to emit 1.8 million tourist visas in 2013.
• Speed up the amount of time visa applicants wait for an interview. In Brazil, the goal is to interview 80% of non-immigrant visa applicants within 3 weeks of their application.
• In what is perhaps the biggest change for Brazilians, the State Department will implement a pilot program that will waive the required interview for "low-risk" non-immigrant visa applicants, including "younger or older first-time applicants," and those renewing expired visas. The program is expected to affect tens of thousands of Brazilians and to open up more spots for visa interviewees.
• Consider nominating Brazil to participate in the Visa Waiver Program. This talk has been going on for quite awhile, but now it seems to be getting a little more traction. In order to be considered for the program, Brazil must have a visa rejection rate of 3 percent or less; it's currently 5 percent. Though this will be a lengthy process, the same tourist lobby is pushing hard for the government to really consider Brazil for the visa waiver program.

In Brazil, it is immigration visa policy that's come to the fore. After an increasing amount of Haitians arriving in the Amazon (and even immigrants from the Middle East and South Asia) and a spate of media coverage, the Brazilian government announced that it would close its borders to undocumented migrants. It had been giving out visas and work authorization to the several thousand Haitian migrants that arrived in Acre state. In doing so, it also announced a limited legal immigration program for Haitians, in which the Brazilian consulate in Port-au-Prince will issue 100 visas a month.

The other big news is about proposed changes for skilled professionals looking to move to Brazil. The federal government is putting together a commission to study new visa policies that would benefit foreign professionals, particularly Spaniards and Portuguese, who represent the highest number of skilled professionals moving to Brazil. With the crisis in Europe and Brazil's economy still humming along, the government increased the number of work authorizations by at least 32 percent last year, from January to September, issuing nearly 51,400 work visas. The commission will explore ways to simplify and speed up the visa process, in a bid not only to fill the gap of skilled professionals in the Brazilian workforce, but also, according to Globo, attempt a "new cycle of European immigration to Brazil." Not only is the current process difficult and bureaucratic, but it's also very slow, so often immigrants or temporary workers will simply enter on a tourist visa while they await their papers. As Greg Michener points out, for some there are even more hurdles after getting work papers: validating college degrees, or in his case, his Ph.D, are very painful processes. In short, the changes to help facilitate immigration for skilled professionals have yet to come, but the topic is now on the government's agenda.

The Corruption Question

It's been a good year for President Rousseff, exceeding the expectations of voters and even wowing some skeptics. With a record approval rating of over 70 percent, she exceeded Lula's approval rating after the first year of his presidency by more than 20 points. While there are a number of factors for her popularity, including a strong economy with low unemployment, and proving herself as an independent leader out of Lula's shadow, another important factor has been her crackdown on corruption.

During her first year in office, Dilma sacked six ministers after they came under fire for corruption charges. In the federal government as a whole, 564 public officials were fired for wrongdoing in 2011, though this number is not exactly new: in the past 8 years, over half of the 3,533 public officials who were fired from the federal government lost their jobs because of corruption. Comedy blog Kibe Loco produced a series of videos parodying Dilma's crackdown on corrupt ministers, where an actor dressed in drag would imitate phone calls to her ministers, in which she would yell, using all sorts of profane language, making the ministers cry, and then soothing them like a mother. Dilma's intolerance for corruption was welcomed by many Brazilians, particularly during a year where thousands took to the streets to protest corruption. Popular support to fight corruption also came after the Clean Record Law was passed in 2010 after 2 million Brazilians signed petitions in favor of the law, which aimed to bar candidates accused of misdoing from taking office.

But the question is - what now?

The Supreme Court ruled that the Ficha Limpa law would not count towards the 2010 election, and after ruling on several individual cases, the court allowed at least 6 "ficha suja" congressmen and senators to take office, including notorious Senator Jader Barbalho, who took office in late December. (His son came with him, and proceeded to stick out his tongue and make faces for the press, which antagonized the already dismayed Brazilians opposed to his inauguration). It's unclear if the law will be applied to the 2012 municipal elections.

Dilma has made it clear that she won't tolerate corruption in her cabinet, and a minister shake up in the next few weeks should likely bring in new ministers picked by Dilma, rather than carry overs from Lula's administration. But of the six who left office in disgrace, how many are under investigation and will actually be punished? Cases of ministers returning embezzled funds are few and far between; one of the few is that of former Tourism Minister Pedro Novais, who returned the government funds (worth R$2,156) that he used to pay for a sex motel.

Former Sports Minister Orlando Silva is allegedly planning on running for city councilman in São Paulo in 2012. He wouldn't be the first disgraced politician to come back to life; former President Fernando Collor de Mello, who was impeached in 1992, was elected to the Senate in 2006 and 2010. Notorious politician José Sarney, who also served as president, was first elected to the Senate in 1995, and has served three terms as president of the Senate, a position he currently holds. Another notorious politician, Paulo Maluf, who was on Interpol's "red" list, is currently serving his third term as a federal congressman.

After Dilma's sweep, some are hopeful that it could mean change in Brasília. But without holding wrongdoers responsible and punishing them for their crimes, will corrupt public officials simply try harder to hide what they're doing? And if the Ficha Limpa Law isn't implemented, or if the Supreme Court eventually rules it unconstitutional, will corrupt politicians continue to return to office? Worse yet - will everything acabar em pizza?

Marcelo Freixo: The One to Watch in 2012

With municipal elections coming up in 2012, one of the people to watch is Rio de Janeiro state Congressman Marcelo Freixo, who is running for mayor of Rio. Though he faces an uphill battle at the polls--a recent Ibope survey found that incumbent Eduardo Paes leads with 36 percent, and Freixo is behind with only 7 percent--he's become a national player because of his outspoken stance on security issues and his fame as a fictionalized character in the Tropa de Elite movies. He also was in the headlines last month when he fled Brazil after an increase in death threats. He says that unlike the press reported, he hadn't previously planned to give speeches with Amnesty International, and that it was in fact an emergency trip for security.

Freixo, who worked as a teacher and a human rights advocate in Rio prisons, has tirelessly worked to fight the city's militias. He's also in favor of gun control and of changing drug policy. He believes that security problems in Rio involving militias and drug traffickers are a national problem that require more political will to effectively tackle. But he may have trouble getting votes for mayor: in recent interviews, he acknowledged that he's at a disadvantage in terms of campaign financing, and may have a hard time pulling ahead of Paes. Even if he's not elected, he's likely to remain an important political figure in Rio, especially in terms of security and combatting corruption.

Revista Trip recently published an excellent interview with Freixo, which you can read here. In it, he describes his theory of the "auctioned state" in Rio, in which the government selectively decides where it will provide services and security. He also discusses his long battle with the militias and their influence in Rio.

Rede TV also aired an interesting interview with him, which you can watch below.

Watch the rest of the interview here.