Adventures of a Gringa

Brazil's Protests: The Giant Awakens

Did you think you'd live to see the day? Some Brazilians were asking that question today during a series of historic, nationwide protests. One of the recurring themes? The giant awakens. Finally, finally, it seemed, Brazil had awakened from a long stupor, and Brazilians had finally stood up to demand change. While bus fares were still on the agenda, Brazilians turned out to demand more from the government: less corruption, better transportation, education, and public health, more security, less for the World Cup, more for the public good.

Rio de Janeiro

The protests brought an estimated 100,000 people to the streets of Rio, 65,000 to São Paulo, 20,000 to Belo Horizonte, 10,000 to Curitiba, and thousands to cities all over the country (see a full map of the protests here). Seeing that many people assemble in Rio to protest--and not for Carnival--was a beautiful sight. Some protesters said if you looked around, you couldn't see where the crowd began or ended. An amazing Vine video gives you a sense of the size.

Desde Diretas-Já e Impeachment de Collor, as ruas do Brasil não reuniam tanta gente em protesto. Pior reação é ignorar o que ocorreu hoje

— Kennedy Alencar (@KennedyAlencar) June 17, 2013

Protesters and journalists alike remarked how amazing it was to see so many people exercising their rights, and in most cases, protesting peacefully. "That's what I'm going to tell my children; that's what made me feel truly Brazilian for the first time in my life," wrote a friend at the Rio protest. "I think [that was the case] for many people." People marveled at the fact that Brazilians seem to care more about the protests than the Confederations Cup.

According to reports, though many protesters were young, there were people from a variety of ages and socioeconomic backgrounds. Though some still opposed the protests, people from different parts of the ideological spectrum--especially young people--showed support.

 

São Paulo

Even those who stayed home were eager to share what was happening.

Ainda q eu sempre reclame do chorume no FB, é legal ver pessoas insuspeitas discutindo, lendo, pensando e, às vezes, até mudando de ideia

— Drunkeynesian (@drunkeynesian) June 17, 2013

In my opinion, the biggest accomplishment of the protests was to prove that the government will be held more accountable from now on. Citizens flexed their muscles, and must have certainly gotten the attention of politicians ahead of next year's elections.

Brazil protesters tonight challenged symbols of political power: Governor's Palace (São Paulo); State Legislature (Rio); Congress (Brasília)

— Simon Romero (@viaSimonRomero) June 18, 2013

That was especially true in Brasília, Rio, and São Paulo. Protesters tried to invade state government buildings in Rio and São Paulo, and climbed up onto the roof of Congress in Brasília. The scene of some of the protesters peacefully walking down the ramp from Congress was a sight to see.

Brasília

Now, it's President Dilma Rousseff's move: through a spokesperson, she said she was following the protests, noting that peaceful manifestations are "legitimate" and part of democracy. But it remains to be seen what else the government will do now, and how much will be done behind the scenes.

 

Brasília

Though the breadth and size of the protests were large by Brazilian standards, they're still smaller by comparison to other countries with more frequent public demonstrations. It's unclear if more of this size will continue. (Another protest is planned in São Paulo on June 18, and another in Rio on June 20.)

The protest I covered in Buenos Aires in April was roughly 10x bigger than tonight's in São Paulo #changebrazil http://t.co/dm7D4Yanse

— Brian Winter (@BrazilBrian) June 18, 2013

And now, it also remains to be seen what comes next. In a way, today was the easier part. The harder part--maintaining momentum and sustaining action--starts tomorrow.

A protest movement with no specified, concrete demands will not change anything.

— alex bellos (@alexbellos) June 18, 2013

Whether this will be a blip or a movement is still unclear. But it's now obvious that many Brazilians favor change, and are willing to physically stand up for it. Could this emblematic commercial be prophetic? Or not?

Images: via Voz da Comunidade, social media, Movimento Sem Corrupção.

Brazil's Protests: A Blip, or the Making of a Movement?

For Brazilians and Brazil-watchers alike, the protests this week have either inspired alarm or hope. On one hand, there are the conspiracy theorists, who think the protests are engineered to impact the presidential elections and are organized by nefarious elements from the extreme left. On the other, some hope this is finally it: a real, nationwide movement to hold the government responsible for security, corruption, and public services. Could it be an end to the usual apathy and complacency, to the shrug and "vai-fazer-o-que," to the "vai-acabar-em-pizza" attitude? Are people finally going to take action? Is this the start of something big?

Those in favor of the protests want them to mean something more. A photo has been circulating on Facebook of a "future" book called "The 20 Cent Revolution: The Protest that Changed Brazil." And it's arguably the continuing violence to repress the protests that's serving as fuel for a movement. But they could peter out after new protests planned for next week, or it could become like Occupy Wall Street--where a movement gains a lot of momentum and media attention, but fizzles out and doesn't actually accomplish much or end in many concrete results.

One challenge is identifying a common goal or theme. Though the protests originally began because of a a bus fare increase, they grew into something bigger. The problem is, though, that the messaging is not completely coherent. (On social media, for example, there are several hashtags to describe the protests, and more are emerging, too.) There are protests scheduled in Rio and São Paulo on Monday, as well as 27 cities worldwide over the course of the week, so it remains to be seen if a more centralized message develops.

The one thing the protests are accomplishing in the short term is starting a dialogue. It's not only in the traditional media and on social media, but it's also getting people talking--even strangers on the bus, said a friend in Rio.

The protests couldn't come a better time to gain international attention. The Confederations Cup began today and runs through the end of the month. For the next year, Brazil's going to be in the spotlight. Before the Brazil vs. Japan game started this afternoon, ESPN in the United States showed scenes from the protests--including the one in Brasilia today--and briefly mentioned what was happening. President Dilma Rousseff and FIFA President Joseph Blatter were booed at the opening of the game. Rousseff has yet to address the protests publicly.

So it remains to be seen if this is a blip or a movement. But at the very least, it's starting an important discussion.

Images: Via social media, Salad Uprising. Second image reads: Sorry for the inconvience, we're changing the country.

Brazil's Bus Fare Protests: More Than 20 Cents

Ongoing protests against a rise in bus fare continued in São Paulo and Rio tonight, as well as other cities. Thousands hit the streets in Brazil's two biggest cities, with continued violent clashes between police and protesters in both cities. But it was the images in São Paulo of peaceful protesters surrounded by riot police or being fired on with rubber bullets, as well as the news that at least half a dozen journalists were injured in the fray, that showed a different story shown by some media outlets of one of a horde of hooligans.

What, then, brought so many people to the streets? In both cities, bus fare is slated to rise by R$0.20. Clearly, this is not an insignificant amount for those making the minimum wage, but the demonstrations also attracted members of the middle class, too. Considering that unemployment is still low and wages have risen over the last decade, why protest fare increases now?

Brazil protests focus on bus-fare increases. But they come at time of high inflation, sluggish growth & sharp fall in currency. Coincidence?

— Simon Romero (@viaSimonRomero) June 14, 2013

First, there's the economic issue. As I wrote yesterday, inflation and the rising cost of living seem like the immediate triggers.

But my hypothesis beyond the immediate economic issues is this: the São Paulo and Rio protests have more to do with the evolution of Brazil's middle class amid a stagnation in quality in life.

On one hand, there are more and more people moving into the so-called new middle class, gaining higher salaries and levels of education and as a result, come to expect a higher standard of living. But some things haven't changed much. Crime is a major concern, especially in Rio and São Paulo; muggings, gun violence, and home invasions are serious security challenges. Public transportation is still inadequate and often of poor quality, and traffic means workers from different levels of the socioeconomic spectrum have long commutes. Many consumer goods are still expensive, and the cost of living--including basics like food and housing--is high. "It's a general feeling of being fed up," a friend in São Paulo told me.

However, it's also the traditional middle class that has grown tired of this stagnated quality of life. Some feel they have earned a quality of life closer to that of high-income countries, and are frustrated by paying high taxes with low returns. At the same time, some resent the new middle class for "invading" spaces normally reserved for the better off, and the new middle class is well aware of how it is viewed. Several people mentioned that during the protests, people were throwing around the word "burguês." Maybe these class tensions are becoming more obvious.

Esses manifestantes sao "uns burgues q n tem o q fazer"

— SoninhaFrancine (@SoninhaFrancine) June 13, 2013

There are also a few interesting things to note.

The first is that the protests have no obvious associations with political parties. Brazil's most famous large-scale protests in recent memory are those against the dictatorship and the transition to democracy. Since then, there certainly have been protests (especially in São Paulo), but frequently, big manifestations have tended to involve labor unions, political parties and campaign rallies, public employees, or religious groups. To a lesser degree, there are also niche causes like women's rights rallies and pro-marijuana marches. But because this week's protests were not organized by elected officials, labor unions, churches, or political parties, it's taken some by surprise. 

A mente petista funciona assim: "como pode haver movimentação social sem eu ter autorizado, sem eu ter cooptado?"

— teclologoexisto (@teclologoexisto) June 14, 2013

The other interesting thing to note is how bitterly the protests have divided people, especially in São Paulo. There's the side that says that twenty cents is not that much, and that a bunch of disorganized, left-wing instigators are using violence to incite chaos. There's the other side, that supports the right to protest and encourages people standing up for a cause. But evidence of police brutality--beating protesters and members of the press, and using tear gas, bombs, and rubber bullets--have resurrected ghosts of the dicatorship for many, causing anxiety about state security.

There's also the issue of social media, which like in other parts of the world, helped both fuel and organize protesters, and allow people the world over to follow the manifestations in real time. And because of the grossly incompetent response by São Paulo's state and local governments and the resulting violence, the protests evolved into something much bigger than they could have.

Image: Police fire on protesters in São Paulo. Via Feridos no Protesto em São Paulo.

Brazil's Economy and the World Cup

Yesterday marked a year until the World Cup begins, while the Confederation Cup kicks off on Saturday. So from here on out, it's "will-Brazil-be-ready," imagina na Copa, on full blast. But the most interesting story to watch long-term in Brazil is quite another, though the mega-events do play a role.

The image of Brazil's booming economy has been slowly eroding, and not just in the international media. The promise of sweet-talking politicians and the illusion that everything is fine seem less likely to outsiders; in the past few years, I've lost count of how many officials and politicians I've heard painting the same rosy, though not entirely accurate picture. But for Brazilians, too, confidence has been falling and they're spending less. It's not just slower growth, or delays in infrastructure projects. It's also creeping inflation, the possibility of stagflation, and a gradual rise in consumer debt along with higher costs of living. Unemployment, which has been at historic lows, has been increasing slightly.

In Brazil for the last few years, perception and hype have been an important part of Brazil's economic story. Inflation has been one of the big drivers of revealing a reality the government has been eager to downplay. The massive sums of money the government is spending could be coming under closer scrutiny. 

This month, protests broke out in São Paulo and Rio, as well as Goiânia, Natal, and Florianópolis, over a rise in bus fares. It's not only a sign of growing discontent with the increasing cost of living, but also a reaction to a lack of a convincing policy response to growing inflation. As El País pointed out: "Not even in the face of big political corruption scandals did people [protest] in the streets. Once again, what's happening here is the famous quote attributed to Bill Clinton: 'It's the economy, stupid.'" While it's not true that Brazilians haven't protested corruption scandals, the manifestations are another sign that the cracks are beginning to show in public perceptions of the economy.

Also, the idea that an improved economy would bring down crime levels is one that has yet to be seen, especially in the country's two biggest cities. Ahead of the mega-events, Brazil launched its biggest border security operation ever, bought anti-aircraft tanks, and plans to fly drones over stadiums in Rio and Brasília. But the head of Abin, Brazil's intelligence agency, said last month that regular crime is a bigger concern than terrorism during the mega-events. Certainly, for Brazilians on a day-to-day basis, that's the case. In Rio state, murders, muggings, and car thefts all rose in April compared to the previous year. In São Paulo, robberies followed by murder increased 74 percent during the first four months of 2012; crime and insecurity are hot topics in the city.

So now the big games are coming, a time for the government to continue promoting this vision of a booming Brazil. But with much of the infrastructure for the mega-events funded by the government, some Brazilians may cast a critical eye on the investments being made. The cost of stadium construction and renovations alone stands at $3.3 billion, and could go up more. Could these same stadiums remain as a symbol of the golden days of the boom and misguided public spending? Economist Luciano Sobral, also known as the Drunkeynesian, thinks so.

"Evidently, it won't only be the 'arenas' that will have screwed the country, but I see them as the main symbols of a combination of arrogance, exaggerated optimism, poor planning, and swindling that are bringing Brazil down," he wrote. "The decision to put money (much of it public) into football stadiums will be seen as the sign marking the height of a cycle in which Brazil imagined itself to be on an inevitable path to becoming a rich country, only to realize a few years later that we'd had little more than luck to produce, for a time, what the Chinese wanted to buy in large quantities." He ends on an even more pessimistic note. "In the future, when I walk through the ruins of those arenas with my future grandchildren, I'll use the stadiums to tell...the story of how during my generation, Brazil screwed itself over."

I'm a bit more hopeful. I'd like to think that the bus fare protests are actually a good sign--that people are more invested in accountability. It's a little too late to cut the costs of the already overbudgeted stadium projects, but with an election year ahead, it remains to be seen if bread and circuses will win out.

Image: Renovations on Maracanã in Rio. Portal da Copa.

Interview: Imagina na Copa

It's become a Brazilian cliché: "Imagina na Copa!" Just imagine during the World Cup. It's a common complaint about many problems in Brazil, particularly in big cities, predicting an unhappy future for the country's mega-events. Overcrowded airports? Imagina na Copa! A spate of muggings in São Paulo? Imagina na Copa! A series of road signs with English misspellings in Rio? Imagina na Copa!

The saying was popularized further by a series of comedy videos that came out last year, and is the title of a new song by a popular sertanejo duo. But a new organization by the same name is seeking to turn the pessimistic expression on its head. I spoke to Mariana Campanatti, one of the group's founders, about what Imagina na Copa hopes to achieve.

Imagina na Copa was started by four Brazilians in their late 20s living in São Paulo. The two paulistas, mineira, and carioca were working at corporate jobs, and wanted to do something different, focusing on social good projects. "It's easy for people to complain," Campanatti explained. "Why don't we stop complaining and do something?" A lot of Brazilians of her generation also want to get involved in social good, said Campanatti, but sometimes things get in the way. "Between the intention and the action, there's a barrier. People have a lot of trouble seeing themselves as an agent of change." So Campanatti and the Imagina na Copa team decided to share stories about ordinary Brazilians working on social good projects to show how easy it can be to get involved, without necessarily needing a "noble" cause or a lot of money.

So each of the four quit their jobs and "threw themselves out into the world." In September 2012, they launched the project on Catarse, a crowdfunding site similar to Kickstarter, and raised R$25,000 to start the organization. They officially launched the site on January 3.

Imagina da Copa has three main areas. First, it launches a story each week describing an organization or social entrepreneur in Brazil, complete with a video, photos, and a blog post. "We want to show that any person have a role in social change, whether it's in their neighborhood or in society," said Campanatti. The organization looks at a variety causes and entrepreneurs so that others can relate to them.

Each week, Imagina na Copa has featured some truly incredible entrepreneurs. There's Alessandra Orofino of Meu Rio, a successful organization to get young people involved in public policy in Rio; Monique Evelle, who started the Salvador-based organization Desabafo Social at the age of 16, starting out by explaining human rights by sitting down with kids in public spaces; Augusto Leal, who started the Bibliocicleta, the traveling community Bike-Library in Bahia; and artist/activist Thiago Mundano of Pimp My Carroça in São Paulo, among others.

The second area of the organization is holding workshops. Often, people interested in social good don't know where to start and feel overwhelmed by the number of causes. Through the workshops, Imagina na Copa helps participants figure out which cause speaks to them--the kind that "gets them out of bed in the morning"--and then teaches them how to turn their interest into a project. They've held five of these workshops in cities across the country, some of which have already turned out social good projects.

The third area is launching a monthly "mission." Since Imagina na Copa began, it has launched campaigns to crowdsource signage and bus line information at bus stops in cities, to donate books in a pay-it-forward style, and to separate recyclables in green bags. "Everyone doing a small thing can generate a bigger change," Campanatti told me.

To get the word out, Imagina na Copa largely relies on social networks, especially Facebook. "We only exist because of social media," Campanatti said. It's also a way for the group to connect people interested in similar causes, and to reach Brazilians across the country. However, since the four co-founders travel a great deal to meet with social entrepreneurs and feature their stories, they decided to start a network of "captains," or local leaders. They recruited 40 young people (the average age is 22) from 20 cities, and trained them last month in São Paulo. Now, this group will be able to organize their own workshops, launch missions, and suggest stories.

Like other non-profits, Imagina na Copa is constantly seeking funding. The four co-founders don't have salaries and are living off personal savings. Aside from crowdfunding, they managed to get sponsorship from Instituto Asas. They also have partners who donate space and services, and Folha de São Paulo syndicates their weekly story. They're relaunching another crowdfunding drive starting June 12, which marks a year before the World Cup begins.

Despite their early successes, the co-founders plan to end the project in its current form when the World Cup begins. Putting a deadline on something helps motivate people, explained Campanatti, giving a more tangible sense for getting things done. When 2014 comes, the group plans to assess the project and publish a report, and figure out another way to continue their work. After leaving careers in places like ad agencies and banks, working on social good is "a path of no return," said Campanatti.

(Images: Courtesy of Imagina na Copa)

Q&A with the Drunkeynesian: Brazil's Food Inflation

Earlier this month, I reported on Brazil's tomato crisis, with prices of tomatoes and other vegetables rising. Soon after, the international press also began covering this issue (see Beyond Brics, FT, Bloomberg, AP, NPR, and Quartz). There were even reports in the Brazilian press of tomato smuggling across the Argentine border. One of Brazil's most popular TV personalities, Ana Maria Braga, wore a "tomato necklace" on TV and joked she was wearing gold. This weekend, two of Brazil's largest weekly magazines put tomatoes on the front cover. Much of the coverage, both domestic and international, focuses on the threat of inflation, and what rising inflation could mean for next year's presidential election. There's also the issue of consumption. Valor reported last week that due to rising food prices, supermarket sales fell 2.1 percent in February, though families spent 9.3 percent more than in February 2012. In the last week or so, tomato prices have started to go down, though prices of other vegetables--namely onions and potatoes--increased by 15 and 25 percent, respectively. Onions, too, are being smuggled across the Argentine and Paraguayan borders.

To determine what is really going on with food inflation, I talked to São Paulo-based economist Luciano Sobral, also known as the Drunkeynesian, to get his views on whether this a long-term trend, a short-term problem, or a symptom of other economic forces at play.

Tomatoes, onions, and other vegetables and food products have risen over the last year. There are climatic reasons (drought, rains) and agricultural reasons (less area planted), but what are the bigger economic forces at play?

I don’t think there are other bigger economic forces acting here, since demand for those items is pretty much stable. As you mentioned, there was a supply shock caused mainly by climatic reasons (heavy rains in the Southeast, a severe drought in the Northeast), and since arbitrage is not possible for several products (there’s no international market, at least not a liquid one where players can hedge or speculate), prices skyrocketed. Curiously, the prices of exchange listed agricultural commodities have been falling consistently since last September, so if there’s any external factor in foodstuff items it should lead to lower domestic prices.

How is food inflation going to affect inflation overall? The economy overall?

Of course the first effect is a spike in headline inflation. The infamous tomato story caused a frenzy on local media (two of the largest weekly magazines in Brazil are currently running cover stories about inflation and food prices), and called attention to a deeper, more structural problem: headline inflation is so sensitive to food prices because ex-food inflation has been quite high. Service prices are rising more than 10 percent per year. There’s a huge adjustment in relative prices going on, and it’s not favourable to capital or investments. Thus the conundrum: the current situation is very desirable politically (low unemployment and real wages rising), but it doesn’t seem sustainable, since overall profit margins look already quite weak and don’t attract new private investments. Dilma has the political incentives to postpone an adjustment until after next year’s elections, but, as a long term growth strategy, Brazil cannot rely only on state-lead, profit-insensitive capital investment.

Do you think food-driven inflation will continue into next year? Or is this a short-term issue?

I don’t see a major global uptrend in food prices, so I’d bet this is a short-term issue. Shocks related to climate are pretty much random, impossible to forecast. What’s been more or less established is that they tend to dissipate quite quickly, as soon as the climate turns favorable or higher prices attract new producers or importers to the market. An example: tomato prices hit R$12/kg a couple of weeks ago; this weekend I bought beautiful tomatoes at a supermarket for less than R$4/kg.

What does the price spike of certain foods reveal about the Brazilian economy?

Despite all the progress of recent years, Brazil remains a (somewhat) poor and (very) unequal country. The substantial weight of food prices in the average consumption basket (and, consequently, in price indexes) is an evidence of that: everytime certain food prices rise, there’s a national concern. This is similar to what happens with tortilla prices in Mexico or rice prices in some poor Asian nations. Another interesting aspect is the dependence of Brazilian food markets on local producers, since importing is not a viable emergency solution (think of taxes, red tape, complicated logistics). This tends to make supply shocks more frequent and persistent. Finally, it shows the old obsession of the country with inflation, as if it were part of our collective conscience, and how there’s little space in current inflation to accommodate shocks within the established inflation target range (2.5 percent to 6.5 percent, with a center of 4.5 percent). Brazil indeed has an inflation problem, although I don’t think it’s as dramatic as the media and some economists are painting it; only it serves as an important alert to more complicated structural issues.

Image: Courtesy of Drunkeynesian

Brazil's Tomato War

Brazil has a tomato problem. In recent weeks, the price of tomatoes has skyrocketed, making it as expensive as meat and chicken in some cases.

In supermarkets in parts of São Paulo state, Brazil's second-largest tomato producer, the price of tomatoes rose by 346 percent, from R$1.90 to R$8.49 per kilo. Wholesale prices there have also risen above 330 percent. In states like Mato Grosso do Sul and Pernambuco, prices spiked above 200 percent. In Goiás, the country's largest tomato producer, tomato prices hit an all-time high of 150 percent in April.

Nationwide, tomato prices increased 17 percent in the last week alone. Prices went up 70 percent from January to March, and rose a total of 150 percent in the last 12 months.

For an international comparison: At my local grocery store in New York, vine tomatoes are on sale for $1.97 per pound, or about R$8.61 per kilo. In São Paulo, vine tomatoes at Pão de Açucar are selling for R$14.39 per kilo--67 percent more than in New York. Even in Alaska, tomatoes cost less than in some Brazilian cities.

A number of factors are at play. Areas of tomato cultivation were reduced nationwide, in part due to heavy rains in the South and a record drought in the Northeast. There was also overproduction of tomatoes last year, which led to fewer areas of cultivation this year. In total, the area covered by tomato fields fell 16 percent in Brazil; in Goiás, by nearly 42 percent. The result of falling supply? Higher prices.

On the agricultural side, there were other factors. Some crops were hit by diseases. Agricultural labor doesn't come cheap. Small-scale farmers are often unable to invest in high-tech equipment, opting to pay for workers instead. Another theory is that the lack of policies to guarantee a minimum price based on production costs has also had an influence. Then there are the overall economic causes. High production costs, as well as high price of diesel, contribute. There's also the "Brazil cost," which includes expensive transportation costs and high taxes. 

The price spike has led to jokes in the media and on the internet, spawning political cartoons such as a robber demanding tomatoes instead of a wallet, and a woman complaining that tomatoes are too expensive to throw at politicians. It's inspired Facebook memes, showing TV host Silvio Santos giving away tomatoes as a prize, an engagement ring made with tomatoes, and an image of a robber saying: "ATMs are over with. The game's in boxes of tomatoes now."

Some people are simply cutting back on tomato purchases. But others, like an Italian restaurant in São Paulo is fighting back and "declaring war" on tomatoes. Nello's Cantina and Pizzaria announced on Facebook earlier this week that it would stop buying tomatoes and serving dishes using tomatoes until the price goes down--a fairly extreme decision for an Italian restaurant. Today, though, the restaurant posted a video showing owners negotiating 25 boxes of tomatoes at a wholesale market. (Incidentally, this is the same restaurant that, like several other upscale restaurants in São Paulo in recent memory, saw armed thieves invade the premises and rob 60 customers about a year ago.)

Some say prices will come down soon, though it's not likely to come down to previous lows. Other vegetables, like onions and carrots, have also become more expensive, hitting the highest prices in 14 years. Is this just a price flux? Or is this a sign of more inflation to come--which could have a bigger impact ahead of next year's election? We'll have to see. For now, Brazilians may just have to cut back on salad.

**Updated 4/6 with additional info on Alaska prices, corrected tomato cost per real in NYC.

Image: Angela Leese